This Week's Lineup
How Much Is A 3rd Down Worth?
NFL Teams convert 38.9% of all third downs. More math and context inside, but knowing nothing else at all, including distance — a third down conversion is worth 1.84 points added.
Who Should Benefit From The Shift Ban
The shift disappears in 2023 for MLB, who will benefit the most? The player at the top has lost ~25 hits from the shift in 2022. The batting average alone will jump almost 30 points.
Which Pitchers Will Be Impacted Most When the Robot Umpires Arrive?
So who do the robot umpires figure to help the most? We can determine that with the help of called-ball+, which measures how often pitchers have offerings in the zone that are called a ball compared to the league-average hurler (with the MLB average being 100).
Sacrifice Fly: When to Send the Runner?
Using publicly available Statcast data to analyze how the success of a sacrifice fly depends on the depth and direction of the batted ball hit to the outfield.
Han Xu Is Unlike Any Player The WNBA Has Seen
She's 6'10" and posted a 55.9 effective field-goal percentage in 441 minutes at the time of writing, which places her seventh all-time among players 22 or younger.
What I'm Watching
Realizing I'm obsessed with college football and can find a narrative justification to watch any game, I'm going to try and pinpoint only one game from now on for each sport/league.
College Football:
- (#5) Clemson @ (#21) Wake Forest
NFL:
- Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rest:
- Presidents Cup for golf
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes.
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