Welcome
To the third issue of Unexpected Points Added. This week's issue provides a few advanced sports analytics articles, coupled with a baseball definition update and another data ethics read.
I'm keeping this here till I get a response. If you have a favorite source I should review for the next issue, please share! I'll give you a shoutout and come up with a sports analytics acronym based on your name.
This Week's Lineup
Using Clustering to Define NFL Quarterbacks
All QBs from 2015-2020 with at least 2,500 yards passing were analyzed to determine similar players based on an array of statistics. Archetype's defined: hybrid, pocket passers, elite mobile threats, and mediocre but can run the needed. They are who we thought they were! It will be neat to see this in a few years and analyze Expected Points Added data to determine which cluster is worth more.
Sports-Reference Updates WAR Definition
Updates to Defensive Runs Saved due to more accurate hit timing data. Park Factors for 2019 and 2020 also seen an adjustment, as WAR uses 3-year averages. Includes players who benefited most.
Machine Learning WNBA Draft Analytics
Looks at the PLUM draft model for the 2021 WNBA Draft, which uses ML to predict which players will succeed. Based on statistics that isolate for a player's impact and efficiency within play-by-play data. Includes links to past drafts too.
AI Reshaping Sports Analytics Landscape
A future of sports analytics uses statistical learning, video understanding, and game theory, aided by AI. Potentially offering better long-term ROI for team decision-makers. This article has soccer as its use case and indicates many scenarios that can be modeled as zero-sum games. Fascinating read.
Ethics & the NFL Sharing RFID Player Data
Oldie but a goodie. The NFL started capturing RFID data on its players in 2015 but began sharing all data in 2018 to every team after every game. It was, and still should be, feared that biometric and performance data might be used against the players, especially during contract negotiations. Thankfully examples haven't been made public, but the league has more data at its disposal than the average fan thinks.
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes. If you have questions or suggestions for the newsletter, just reply to this email. I answer every single one.