Welcome
Twenty-two! That's the issue number, and it used to be my favorite number as a kid. That is till I realized it was Emmitt Smith's, and cheering for him when hometown Barry Sanders was better made me feel guilty.
NBA dominates this week. Predictions and predictions and sleep science. Georgia Bulldogs have a decent defense, and the SF Giants throw the most first-pitch strikes.
Swoosh!
This Week's Lineup
2021-22 NBA Predictions
NBA season begins next week and I'm including another 538 model for predictions. Includes playoff and Finals odds, and game predictions based on their RAPTOR player- model.
NBA Preview: Reviewing the Title Contenders
New source! It provides a bit of commentary with some broader questions but dives a layer or two deep into advanced metrics to understand how good LeBron is at age 37.
The Giants Capitalize on the First Pitch | FanGraphs Baseball
Including this while they're still relevant. Writing this during game 5. However, they were the best pitching staff at throwing first-pitch strikes. A non-pitcher league-average batter sees their wRC+ drop to 69 when down in the count 0-1. Taking a ball? Their wRC+ jumps to 128. Quite a difference!
Georgia's Defense is Good
Historically good. After six games, the Expected Points Added (heh) per play is a whopping -0.35. That's the lowest since 2004. 2021 Iowa comes in at #4 on the list too.
Sleep Science Success
A little old but has aged well. Touches on a few sleep studies and why it's so important, especially with athletes. Stanford's men's basketball team increased sleep by 70 minutes for 5+ weeks and saw a 9% increase in 3-point and free throw percentages. Includes a study on how west coast NFL teams outperform west coast teams during evening match-ups.
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes. If you have questions or suggestions for the newsletter, just reply to this email. I answer every single one.