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155th issue. The NFL is now underway. ~Five months till the Super Bowl
Previewing this week...
Several MLB teams' playoff odds have plummeted since the trade deadline due to roster changes and underperformance, while in the NFL, the surge in high-paid wide receivers is being scrutinized as these investments often don't translate to postseason success. Meanwhile, advancements like StatsBomb's xPass 360 model are enhancing sports analytics, and Mookie Betts and Yandy Diaz stand out as baseball’s most balanced hitters in 2024, excelling across key hitting categories without sacrificing power.
This Week's Lineup
Fading Since the Trade Deadline: The Teams Whose Odds Have Fallen the Furthest
Since the trade deadline, several MLB teams, including the Cardinals, Mets, Pirates, Giants, Red Sox, and Mariners, have seen steep declines in their playoff odds due to injuries, roster changes, and underperforming players, complicating their postseason ambitions.
Not Chasing ‘Slug’: The Three Most Complete Hitters in Baseball
Only two MLB players in 2024—Mookie Betts and Yandy Diaz—are at least 10% better than the league average in the key hitting categories of discipline, contact, and slugging, making them the most complete hitters in baseball, while other players often sacrifice balance for power.
xPass 360: Upgrading Expected Pass Models
StatsBomb's upgraded xPass 360 model uses 360 freeze-frame data to incorporate player locations and context into pass success predictions, outperforming event-based models and other state-of-the-art tracking data models by better accounting for positional nuances, pass difficulty, and mitigating information leakage.
NFL Draft: Three-year position rankings (2022-24)
We can often get caught up in the world of the most recent draft class. Analysts and scouts talk about how a player might have the class' best hands, the best pass-rush moves or the best vision as a ball carrier, but how do each of those traits stack up when they are compared against players from other classes?
Are the NFL's Highest-Paid Wide Receivers a Bad Investment?
The wide receiver market in the NFL saw a major boom in 2024 with 15 players signing contracts worth at least $20 million annually, including six making $30 million or more, but teams are questioning the value of investing heavily in the position as historical data shows it rarely correlates with playoff success
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes.
I completed a Master of Applied Data Science from the University of Michigan; let's connect.
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