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154th issue. Week One of college football is underway!
Previewing this week...
College football teams like Utah and Nebraska may underperform in 2024, while Aaron Judge has a 56% chance of matching his 2022 home run record. MLB’s 2023 rule changes have quickened game pace and increased steals, and SEC and B1G teams dominate 2024 preseason rankings. The launch of fbref.com has revolutionized soccer analytics, as shared by Sports Reference president Sean Forman.
This Week's Lineup
College Football Teams Projected to Underperform in 2024
The TRACR model projects several college football teams, including Utah, UNLV, Oklahoma State, Liberty, and Nebraska, to underperform relative to betting market expectations, largely due to concerns over injuries, inexperienced players, and defensive weaknesses.
Predicting Aaron Judge’s HRs — 2024 Edition
Using a Bayesian approach with a Shiny app, it’s predicted that Aaron Judge will hit about 11 more home runs in the remaining games, giving him a 56% chance of matching or exceeding his 2022 AL record of 62 home runs based on current performance and projected plate appearances.
The MLB's 2023 Rule Changes: A First Analysis of Their Impact on the Game
The 2023 MLB rule changes, including pitch timers, limits on defensive shifts, and larger bases, have significantly shortened game times, increased stolen base attempts and success rates, and initially boosted offensive metrics, although the long-term impact on overall fan engagement and attendance remains mixed.
2024 CFB Consensus Preseason Power Ratings
This article provides a consensus preseason power rating for the 2024 college football season, combining various power rating systems to rank teams, with Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas leading the top 25, highlighting a "Power 2" dominance by the SEC and B1G conferences while also previewing key matchups and playoff scenarios based on these ratings.
Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary: Soccer Data with Sean Forman on Apple Podcasts
The launch of fbref.com has changed public soccer analytics, and we sat down to interview Sean Forman, the president of Sports Reference, about the website, how it came to be, what he learned about soccer analytics from building it, and about their new Stathead feature (stathead.com).
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes.
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