Thursday-Sunday this week is a fantastic time to be a sports fan. MLB Opening Day, Tiger making his return to The Masters and The Frozen Four.
Leaning into the first two, we have fun stats and predictions! And a look at putting variability as it pertains to strokes-gained. Finished with a technical review of a model that estimates wOBA.
This Week's Lineup
The Masters 2022 Preview Stats
Psh. So what the 2022 version started yesterday. There are some fun factoids in here, such as this one: Fuzzy Zoeller is the last player to win the Masters at the first attempt, doing so in 1979.
Implementing Expected Strokes Gained to Identify Putting Regression
Putting is a highly volatile aspect of betting on building rosters for daily fantasy golf and for outright winners. The analysis provides insight on how important putting within 10 feet is.
MLB ATC (Average Total Cost) 2022 Projected Standings
Around since 2017, the ATC methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight. It has been the most accurate projection system over the last three seasons.
2022 MLB Predictions
Keeping the projection train rolling, FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game and the chances that each team will win the World Series. Can also drill down to pitcher ratings and game predictions.
Estimating wOBAs by a Nonnested Multilevel Model
Technical explanation of how much variability in wOBA values is due to differences in pitcher abilities and how much of the variability is due to batter abilities. Stemming from the nonnested model for estimating wOBA's, as executed in R.
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes.
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