Welcome
Twenty-fifth issue. Halfway to some paltry 50 Cent dad jokes.
This issue dabbles a bit more into what's timely, starting with a review of Buster Posey's career and how he stacks up versus the rest of the great catchers. It's never fun seeing another Patrick struggle, but Mahomes is doing just that, so naturally, 538 has the insight. Next up, soccer, and we dig in on a Goal Difference Added metric, followed by how to create ELO ratings for college football and another model from 538, this time for NBA players.
Cheers!
This Week's Lineup
We’ll See You in Cooperstown, Buster Posey?
The answer is yes. His WAR is in the top 7 of players with at Least 1,000 Games Caught, 1,500 Hits, and 120 OPS+. He frames the ball quite well and has the second-highest WAR of position players since 2009.
Patrick Mahomes Is Slumping
Lots of good data nuggets in this read. The best? Mahomes never had back-to-back below-average starts, till the last two weeks.
Success Through Goal Difference Added
The algorithm calculates every action and can determine the overall impact a player has through all their actions. The impact is presented to clubs in terms of ‘Goal Difference Added’ per 90. Who are the top ten performers?
Calculating Elo Ratings for College Football
A step-by-step process to build a college football Elo model. Dig in, enjoy!
The Best NBA Players
538's ratings use play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate the value of every player in the NBA, updated daily. RAPTOR, rawr!
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes. If you have questions or suggestions for the newsletter, just reply to this email. I answer every single one.