Welcome
Eighteenth issue. They say time flies when you're having fun, and I can confirm this to be true with my sample size of one.
With many leagues seasons starting soon (or have just started), it's officially prediction time. I've included two sources for NFL and one for NBA player projections. Part two of the look into if MLB umps are racially biased also came out, and we round off this version with a look at fun MLB 2021 stats.
Cheers!
This Week's Lineup
Part 2: MLB Umpires Racially Biased?
Continuing the discussion from last week, with more examples of how the recent report is ultimately due to selective sampling.
2021 NFL Projections via FiveThirtyEight
The beginning of the football season means projections, starting with 538. Shocker, Lions with a less than 1% chance to win the Super Bowl. The two teams they like best are not a shocker, however.
2021 DVOA NFL Projections via Football Outsiders
Next up is Football Outsiders. DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Take a guess at which two teams are best /s.
2021-22 NBA Player Projections
Projection season is upon us! This is an elegant tool in which 538 identifies similar NBA players throughout history to develop a probabilistic forecast of what current players' futures might look like.
2021 MLB Weird Stats
538 abducted this issue, apparently. Ohtani's lead in WAR could end up the 6th widest margin between #1 and #2 since 1961. Other interesting tidbits included.
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes. If you have questions or suggestions for the newsletter, just reply to this email. I answer every single one.