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The fifteenth issue of Unexpected Points Added!
Please do me a favor and share it with at least one person this week.
The tip of the football iceberg is approaching quickly, and this week starts to dabble with both versions, with a dash of baseball. An analytics interview with an NFL data analyst, a preview of what a high school coaches' drive sheet might look like, identifying which NFL QBs throw the best passes, a new soccer win probability model, and analysis on vertical breaking sliders.
Cheers!
This Week's Lineup
How Does The NFL Uses Analytics?
How exactly are analytics utilized in the NFL and how does utilizing data impact the game today? Fun read that interviews the data analyst from the Bucs and previously with the Eagles.
HS Football Coaches Drive Sheet
Hudl has a "What's Next" report for high school football coaches. This one shows a preview of the information they've provided, tendencies of the other team by down and distance scenarios. Pretty neat!
NFL QB Well-Thrown and Pickable-Pass Leaders
Using well-thrown percentage and pickable pass percentage, we're able to judge QB skills independent of outcomes. A few expected familiar faces at the top of both lists.
New Soccer Win Probability Model
American Soccer Analysis introduced a new in-game win probability model. They provide a nice run-down of their changes, including incorporating team strength based on prior games and more fluctuations between goal-scoring events.
Sliders Vertical Break and Pitch Sequencing
Breaking down Slider Run Value based on 100 pitches for vertical break with sliders and looking at those (well, one) who defy logic. It also investigates pitch speed difference between a pitcher's fastball and their slider to look at a range for optimal performance.
Weekly Unexpected Quote
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes. If you have questions or suggestions for the newsletter, just reply to this email. I answer every single one.