Welcome
The twelfth issue of Unexpected Points Added!
Lots of baseball content to consume today as we look at the elite hitters who have a high barrel and contact rate, how to construct a Bayesian prior for batting average, how to use pitch speed to tweak hard-hit rate, a/b testing The Shift, and an ethical paper on big data in sports analytics.
Cheers!
This Week's Lineup
Barrel Rate and Contact Rate, Who Can Do Both?
A few scatter plots to look at contact rate and barrel rate relationships for hitters with at least 150 plate attempts. The result? As contact increases, barrel rates decrease, with a few exceptions.
Bayesian Construction of a Prior for Lindor’s Hit Probability
A few weeks old with Lindor's statistics, a thorough overview of how to arrive at subjective prior for his batting average using a Shiny app.
Using Pitch Speed to Tweak Hard-Hit Rate
Might it be difficult to generate a high exit velocity against a slow pitch? Should we start using Dynamic-Hard-Hit Rate (DHH%) instead? It is more predictive and stickier. Fun walkthrough with R2 values and scatterplots.
A/B Testing The Shfit
The shifting surge has finally plateaued, sitting at 32 percent of plate appearances (PA) this year compared to 34 percent in 2020. A very visual and technical approach to comparing how teams effectively apply The Shift.
Ethical Concerns Using Big Data Analytics in Sports
Thought-provoking read that asks if athlete data is, or should be, encrypted amongst the different devices for their protection? If not, could this info be hacked and used as a means to profit, i.e., gambling?
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes. If you have questions or suggestions for the newsletter, just reply to this email. I answer every single one.