Welcome
112!
Ryder Cup is underway! We start off by looking at what makes a golf tournament entertaining, combined with a prediction for what will happen. Next, a look at measuring shooting overperformance in soccer, followed by injury rates in MLB pitchers. Running it back with NFL kick return yardage record holders.
I am interested in sports-related data science opportunities within the betting or DFS space. Know someone I should chat with? I'll buy you a coffee.
Self Promotion
I recently created SP K Prediction, which identifies positive expected value in MLB starting pitcher strikeout bets and automatically updates each morning. Additionally, it creates market odds for which pitcher will have the most strikeouts that day based on 10k simulations. Check it out, I think it's rad.
This Week's Lineup
What makes a golf tournament entertaining?
Using live win probability data to quantify entertainment value.
Ryder Cup Predictions: European Star Power or US Depth?
Ryder Cup predictions: The Europeans have the weight of history on their side. The U.S. team has a deeper roster. Who has the edge?
Measuring Shooting Overperformance
While expected goals (xG) tell us about the quality of the shots—accounting for the context of a shot—they’re agnostic to player identity, so we need more info to tease out individual shooting ability.
Pitcher Value Retention (Injury Rates)
Somebody was trying to talk about why injury rates for pitchers have exploded upward, and Bill James said "Well, before you talk about why that has happened, shouldn’t you first establish that it has in fact happened?
What Are the Longest Kickoff Returns in NFL History?
Fun one! Lots of return yardage by the top placeholder.
Please Forward
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here >>
Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes.
I have completed a Master of Applied Data Science from the University of Michigan; let's connect.
Send me an email with your feedback or questions. I respond to every single one.