Welcome
104th issue.
The MLB trade deadline is right around the corner, and football is not too long after that. The Dog Days will come and go before you know it! This week features a majority of MLB-related links, highlighting pitch framers, game-time temps and home runs, and analysis for changing zone rates. CRUTCH, a fun new metric, is introduced by a site that produces great visualizations and web experiences. Lastly, a link to a soccer e-book for those who want tools and resources in one concise location.
I am interested in sports-related data science opportunities within the betting or DFS space. Know someone I should chat with? I'll buy you a coffee.
Self Promotion
I recently created SP K Prediction, which identifies positive expected value in MLB starting pitcher strikeout bets and automatically updates each morning. Additionally, it creates market odds for which pitcher will have the most strikeouts that day based on 10k simulations. Check it out, I think it's rad.
This Week's Lineup
Introducing CRUTCH, A New Metric For Asterisking NBA Champions
CRUTCH (Championship Revisions Utilizing Top Competitor Health) is our new metric for asterisking NBA champions, where injured and inactive opponents from each round add to the asterisk tally.
MLB’s Best Pitch Framers?
Showing some love to catchers who excel at having balls be called strikes. A skill that lives on for at least another year.
How Many Swings Does It Take to Change a Zone Rate?
Published before Opening Day, briefly talks about logistic regression for pitcher zone streak types.
Game-Time Temperature and Home Runs
Using a Negative Binomial regression model, one can implement Bayesian prediction of home run counts for a future season where the game-time temperatures are increased.
Introduction to Football Analysis – Ebook
The book is a 144-page journey into the life of a football analyst and how to conduct better analysis utilizing the tools, resources, and knowledge sources you’ll gain from sifting through the chapters.
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes.
In August, I am graduating with a Master of Applied Data Science from the University of Michigan, let's connect.
Send me an email with your feedback or question. I respond to every single one.