US Open. PKs. Bball solved. Pitcher/Hitter Matchups. MLB Payrolls.
Issue One Hundred And Ninety Three
Yeah yeah, it looks more like a tennis ball than golf ball :)
Welcome
Jobe. Noooooo.
Issue Summary
From an unprecedented US Open prediction model making Scottie Scheffler an overwhelming favorite to a surprising analysis revealing how soccer players prioritize behavioral optics in penalty kicks, this week's data dive spans the tactical and psychological. We'll also explore how analytics has "solved" modern basketball, uncover the perplexing struggle of right-handed batters against lefties in MLB, and dissect every team's financial strategy with a look at 2025 MLB payrolls and beyond.
Unexpected Quote of the Week
"You do not play hockey for good seasons. You play to win the Stanley Cup."
Guy Lafleur
This Week's Lineup
US Open Predictions
With the notoriously challenging Oakmont Country Club set to host the U.S. Open, a cutting-edge prediction model reveals why Scottie Scheffler is an unprecedented favorite, while also pinpointing the few genuine contenders and highlighting surprising slumps among golf's biggest names. theanalyst.com
Are Players Chasing the Best Outcome or Just Playing It Safe?
Contrary to game-theory predictions, an in-depth analysis of professional soccer penalty kicks by Alex Marin Felices reveals players prioritize avoiding embarrassing misses alongside maximizing scoring chances, demonstrating that behavioral optics significantly influence shot placement even at the cost of optimal conversion rates. thexgfootballclub.substack.com
Basketball is a solved sport
In modern basketball, data and analytics have transformed the sport from unpredictable artistry into a game of calculated efficiency, favoring three-pointers and specialized player roles while leveraging advanced technology to optimize every possession. nabraj.com
What’s Happening To The Advantage For Right-Handed Batters vs Left-Handed Pitchers?
An unexplained shift is perplexing MLB analysts: right-handed batters are struggling significantly against left-handed pitchers in 2025, showing a stark drop in key hitting metrics, particularly slugging percentage. sportsinfosolutions.com
The 2025 Payrolls… And Beyond!
As MLB's 2025 season unfolds, an in-depth financial breakdown details every team's current and future payroll, distinguishing between real-dollar and luxury tax calculations, analyzing player contract allocations, and revealing future commitments to shed light on each franchise's unique spending strategy and upcoming financial flexibility. fangraphs.com
Self-Promotion
I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value (+EV) in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds.
I just released a big update that vastly improves the user experience after logging in. Here’s a sneak peek:
New to +EV betting? This explainer is for you.
This RSS feed is published on https://unexpectedpointsadded.com/. You can also subscribe via email.
Thanks so much for mentioning my article. I really appreciate you taking the time to read and share it!