Sportsbook Accuracy. Devers Trade. NBA Finals 3s. Hockey xG Pipeline. Elo Research Paper.
Issue One Hundred And Ninety Four
Welcome
Bucket list item tonight seeing the band shared below in concert!
Issue Summary
This week, we're diving into the fundamental math of Elo rating systems and an in-depth analysis of sportsbook accuracy for NFL player props. Plus, explore a new GPU-accelerated pipeline for hockey Expected Goals, dissect the surprising Rafael Devers trade, and revisit the evolving history of 3-point shooting in the NBA Finals.
Unexpected Quote of the Week
"The Finals aren’t about who’s the best player. It’s about who plays best."
Tim Duncan
Unexpected Song of the Week
This Week's Lineup
Convergence and stationary distribution of Elo rating systems [research paper]
Research paper that explores the Elo rating system, a popular method for ranking players and teams, proving that its dynamic rating process eventually reaches a unique, stable equilibrium. It also details key properties of this stable state, including how ratings accurately reflect players' true skills as the system's update parameter is adjusted. arxiv.org
Measuring Sportsbook Accuracy: Analysis of NFL Player Props Using Line Deviations
An analysis of over 12,000 NFL player prop bets across four major sportsbooks found that Pinnacle consistently offers the sharpest odds. The study also revealed that sportsbooks incorporate a "favorite-longshot bias" into their odds, and that the power method for removing vigorish (vig) from odds provides more accurate probability estimates than the commonly used multiplicative method, indicating its potential to improve betting strategies. shaanchanchani.github.io
Hockey Expected Goals (xG) Pipeline
Introducing a GPU-accelerated Python pipeline via
for estimating hockey expected goals (xG), offering a complete, reproducible workflow from data to a high-performing model that leverages key shot and game context features. https://github.com/tannermanettGiants Acquire Rafael Devers in Unexpected Blockbuster
In a surprising mid-season blockbuster, the San Francisco Giants acquired star hitter Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox, sending a package of prospects and salary relief in return. While analytical models might suggest a win for Boston due to Devers' long, expensive contract, the article argues that the Red Sox, currently in a playoff race, bafflingly sacrificed immediate competitiveness by trading their best hitter for future assets, a move that heavily favors the Giants' present ambitions. fangraphs.com
NBA Finals 3-Point Shooting, A History
Though initially predicted for an easy win, the NBA Finals between OKC and the Pacers have become a tight battle, prompting a historical look at three-point shooting in the Finals. This review reveals the shot's drastic increase in prominence since the 1980s, yet highlights that some champions still succeed without high three-point volume. hoopsanalyst.com
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