Soccer G+ Sub-Categories. Luke Keaschall. SEC. xCTRL Metric. WR Depth Ranges.

Issue One Hundred And Ninety Nine

Aug 17, 2025

Welcome

Unintentionally skipped last week’s issue, ope!

Issue Summary

In the last issue of the 100s, we look at new analytics metrics for football and baseball, including a breakdown of the soccer metric Goals Added and a new probabilistic approach to evaluating a pitcher's control. We also look at the top wide receivers in the NFL by target depth, a projection for the 2025 SEC football season, and rookie second baseman Luke Keaschall's hot start with the Twins.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

“I’m so mean, I make medicine sick.”

Muhammad Ali

This Week's Lineup

Breaking it Down: G+ Sub-Categories

Goals Added, a metric for quantifying soccer player performance, is being broken down into 37 new subcategories to provide a more detailed understanding of how players contribute value through specific actions, from passing to defensive plays. americansocceranalysis.com

Luke Keaschall Is off to the Twins’ Latest, Hottest Hot Start

Rookie second baseman Luke Keaschall has had a remarkable start to his career with the Minnesota Twins, slashing a scorching .415/.500/.707 with a 234 wRC+ in his first 12 games before his hitting streak was snapped, all while overcoming a significant forearm fracture earlier in the season. fangraphs.com

SEC Predictions: Who Will Win the Toughest Conference in College Football?

According to an analysis using the TRACR supercomputer, the 2025 SEC football season is projected to be led by Texas, followed by Georgia and Alabama, with the conference expected to be highly competitive and volatile due to significant roster turnover and quarterback changes for many top teams. theanalyst.com

Introducing xCTRL: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy

A new baseball metric called xCTRL, or expected Control, measures a pitcher's command by using a probabilistic framework to quantify the distance between a pitch's actual location and their unique, historical target zones, thereby providing a more accurate and individualized evaluation of control than existing statistics. wsb.wharton.upenn.edu

Highest-graded wide receivers by target depth: Standouts at the short, intermediate and deep ranges

A Pro Football Focus analysis of the 2024 NFL season highlighted top-graded wide receivers based on target depth, with Zay Flowers excelling on screens, A.J. Brown dominating in the short passing game, Nico Collins leading the intermediate threats, and Jayden Reed, Deebo Samuel, George Pickens, D.K. Metcalf, and Terry McLaurin all receiving top marks as deep threats. pff.com

Self-Promotion

I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value (+EV) in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds.

I just released a big update that vastly improves the user experience after logging in. Here’s a sneak peek: