March Madness Runs. DRIP Metric. MLB Ballparks, Rosters, and Transfers.
Issue One Hundred And Eighty Three
Welcome
The first issue on Substack! Might be some bumps as I figure things out over the next few weeks. Please comment/reply if you notice any oddities.
Why the change? Simple. The incentive to reach additional eyeballs on a platform that’s designed to do so. Curated.co was great for the initial proof of concept due to their great UI for newsletter curation. However, it was becoming stale, and the platform had no experienced or planned improvements. I even reached out to support. It went unanswered.
For those just discovering the newsletter for the first time, here’s an overview of what to expect each week:
Welcome quip followed by a brief Summary of what’s in the week’s issue
A Weekly Unexpected Quote (I love quotes)
This Week’s Lineup, which will consist of 5 articles (I’m always seeking new sources)
Maybe a little Self-Promotion
Encouragement to share/comment/subscribe/fax/etc.
That’s it! Short, sweet, and consumable during your Friday morning coffee.
Issue Summary
With March Madness still buzzing, and the MLB season torpedoing away, this week we're diving into the data that defined those thrilling NCAA runs and the metrics shaping college hoops futures. Plus, we'll explore the surprising paths of future MLB stars, the ballpark buzz for 2025, and the diverse strategies behind how 2025 Opening Day rosters were built.
Weekly Unexpected Quote
"Success comes not to him who has suffered the least but to him whose will is firmest and morale strongest."
1913 Field Regulations of the French Army, appearing in The Guns of August
This Week's Lineup
Players With the Best NCAA Tournament Runs in Recent History
Intriguing individual performances and dominant tournament runs in March Madness since 2012 have been quantified using a new metric, revealing a surprising leader for a single game and a familiar name atop the best overall tournament performances. theanalyst.com
College Basketball DRIP is Here: Our Daily-Updated Rating of Individual Performance
Introduces DRIP (Daily-Updated Rating of Individual Performance) for college basketball, a metric similar to its NBA counterpart, which projects a player's future contribution to their team's offensive and defensive ratings, offering a forward-looking perspective compared to the backward-looking WAR (Wins Above Replacement). theanalyst.com
Pathways to Success: The Role of Transfers in Shaping Elite MLB Careers
Strategic transfers through the NCAA portal and JUCO system can be pivotal in shaping elite MLB careers, as demonstrated by the distinct journeys of Tylor Megill, Bryce Harper, and Paul Skenes, who leveraged these pathways to refine their skills, gain crucial exposure, and ultimately achieve major league success, though such meteoric outcomes remain rare. harvardsportsanalysis.org
Two New Ballparks Enter the Villa
Due to ballpark issues, the Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays will play their 2025 home games in minor league stadiums, Sutter Health Park and George M. Steinbrenner Field respectively, with projections suggesting Sutter Health will play neutrally while GMS Field is likely to be hitter-friendly, a shift from both teams' previous pitcher-friendly major league home parks. fangraphs.com
How the 2025 Opening Day Rosters Were Built
Opening Day MLB rosters in 2025 showcased diverse team-building strategies, with some relying heavily on homegrown talent (Guardians, Cardinals), others on free agency (teams lacking internal options), and a few aggressively utilizing trades (Rays) or waivers (Marlins), while also reflecting a wide range of team ages and international representation, notably featuring players from less common baseball nations. fangraphs.com
Self-Promotion
I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value (+EV) in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds. MLB is active, along with my own starting pitcher strikeout props. Check it out, let me know what you think.
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