Diogo Jota. Horse Race Betting Algo. Catcher Homers. NOLA Metric. Bball Modeling.

Issue One Hundred And Ninety Six

Jul 13, 2025

Welcome

Took the 4th off, and I might start experimenting with Sunday delivery. Stay tuned :)

Issue Summary

This week, we remember the versatile brilliance of Diogo Jota and explore the algorithm behind a billion-dollar horse betting fortune. Plus, uncover the rare MLB catchers who've hit 40+ homers in a season, learn about a new "NOLA" metric for starting pitcher consistency, and delve into how basketball analytics is revolutionizing player and team performance.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

“There may be people who have more talent than you, but there’s no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.”

Derek Jeter

This Week's Lineup

A tribute to Diogo Jota

This tribute remembers Diogo Jota, the Liverpool forward who defied expectations with his versatile brilliance and prolific goal-scoring, a talent gone far too soon. themastermindsite.com

Revisiting the Algorithm that Changed Horse Race Betting

Discover the algorithm behind Bill Benter's reported $1 billion horse betting fortune, revealing how his system combined fundamental analysis with public odds, now revisited with three decades of new data. actamachina.com

The Most Home Runs by a Catcher in a Season

Defying the brutal demands of baseball's toughest position, only seven catchers have ever blasted 40+ home runs in a single season – uncover their legendary feats and the surprising name currently poised to join this elite club. theanalyst.com

Introducing NOLA: A Metric for Starting Pitcher Consistency

Introducing NOLA (Normalized Outlier Likelihood Above average), a new Statcast-driven metric designed to quantify a starting pitcher's consistency by analyzing the standard deviation of their Game Scores, weighted by their ERA-. Inspired by Aaron Nola's infamously volatile starts, NOLA aims to empirically measure the "frustration factor" of pitchers who deliver both gems and blowups, despite their overall quality, distinguishing them from consistently bad pitchers. fangraphs.com

Modeling Player and Team Performance in Basketball

Discover how basketball analytics is transforming the sport, as this paper reviews modern methods for quantifying team strategy and player evaluation, ultimately advocating for the crucial need for causal inference in sports analysis. Research Paper

Self-Promotion

I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value (+EV) in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds.

I just released a big update that vastly improves the user experience after logging in. Here’s a sneak peek: