Baseballs Flying. Tigers Extra Bases, Defense. Bobby Witt Jr. PitchingBot Pitch Model.

Issue One Hundred And Ninety Five

Jun 27, 2025

Welcome

Heavy on baseball this week, enjoy!

Issue Summary

It seems MLB's baseballs are acting strangely again, with unexplained drag shortening fly balls, but the Detroit Tigers are finding success through aggressive baserunning and elite outfield positioning. Meanwhile, we'll check in on Bobby Witt Jr.'s offensive adjustments and delve into a new PitchingBot model offering a stable evaluation of pitch quality, independent of game outcomes

Unexpected Quote of the Week

"You’ve got to be very careful if you don’t know where you are going, because you might not get there."

Yogi Berra

This Week's Lineup

MLB’s baseball is behaving differently again, but no one seems to know why ($)

MLB's 2025 baseballs are exhibiting increased, unexplained drag, causing hard-hit fly balls to travel four feet shorter. The league acknowledges the change but has no explanation, impacting player performance despite claims of consistent gameplay. Use https://12ft.io/ to sidestep access. nytimes.com

The team with MLB's best record has a secret weapon

The 2025 Detroit Tigers are exceptionally aggressive on the bases, leading MLB with their highest "extra bases taken" rate in decades. This deliberate strategy, pushed by their third-base coach, prioritizes putting pressure on opponents and defining their team identity, rather than relying on elite speed or stolen bases. mlb.com

Which Team Positions Its Outfielders Best?

The Detroit Tigers lead MLB in Outfield Positioning Runs Saved this season, demonstrating how strategic pre-pitch placement significantly increases their outfielders' chances of making outs. This success, calculated by improved out probability based on fielder positioning, isn't due to high volume but rather a deliberate team strategy that has notably bolstered their overall defense. sportsinfosolutions.com

Checking In on Bobby Witt Jr.

While still an elite defensive and baserunning talent, Bobby Witt Jr.'s offensive production has regressed in 2025 compared to his stellar 2024 MVP-caliber season. This decline is largely attributed to a drop in his contact ability, particularly against four-seam fastballs located high in the strike zone, which pitchers are utilizing more frequently. Despite his consistent hard-hit metrics, Witt is whiffing more on these pitches, potentially due to a slight steepening in his swing. However, projections remain optimistic, suggesting he's likely to adjust and return closer to his previous offensive levels. pitcherlist.com

PitchingBot Pitch Modeling Primer

This article introduces a new public PitchingBot model that assesses pitch quality using Statcast data, independent of game outcomes. This XGBoost-powered model provides stable evaluations by predicting event likelihoods and converting them into an Expected Run Value (xRV) on a 20-80 scouting scale, offering a more consistent measure of pitcher ability. fangraphs.com

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