Unexpected Points Added - Issue 182 - Mar 28th 2025
Welcome
Issue One Hundred And Eighty Two.
Might move to Substack soon. If there's a breakage, that'll be why.
A study evaluates FanDuel's daily fantasy baseball lineup optimization and proposes a more effective model using Python, while another explores the psychological impact of intentional walks on hitter performance from 2021-2024. Additionally, articles delve into Uruguay's 1930 World Cup win, critique the College Baseball Foundation's National Pitcher of the Year Award, and highlight the Jerry Rice Award's track record of propelling players like Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders to the NFL.
Self Promotion
I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds. Check it out, let me know what you think.
This Week's Lineup
[Research Paper] Optimizing Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineups
This paper aims to evaluate the accuracy of FanDuel's daily fantasy lineup optimization strategy and propose a more effective model using Python and linear programming.
Intentional Walks: The Hidden Cost to Motivating the Next Batter
Explores the impact of intentional walks on hitter performance, analyzing a shift in outcomes from 2021-2023 to 2024, where batters following intentional walks showed improved offensive metrics, potentially due to psychological motivation or adjustments in pitching strategy.
($) How Uruguay won the 1930 World Cup: Home advantage, breathing exercises and a final of two halves
Michael Cox begins his history of World Cup winners with the inaugural champions Uruguay
Somebody Stop Me From Abusing the College Stats Leaderboard
This article critiques the College Baseball Foundation's National Pitcher of the Year Award finalists, analyzing traditional and advanced stats to see if FIP and K-BB% would have changed the selections.
Jerry Rice Award is an NFL Pipeline, With the Next Wave Here
The Jerry Rice Award, which honors FCS college football's top freshman, has a strong track record of propelling players to the NFL, with standout winners like Cooper Kupp and Trey Lance, and continues to spotlight future stars for the 2025 NFL Draft, including Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, and Travis Hunter.
Weekly Unexpected Quote
"That’s the true harbinger of spring, not crocuses or swallows returning to Capistrano, but the sound of a bat on the ball."
Bill Veeck
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes.
I completed a Master of Applied Data Science from the University of Michigan; let's connect.
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