Welcome

Sometimes you just know.

Know when it’s time to start.

Know when it’s time to stop.

It’s time.

I started Unexpected Points Added over four years ago as a way to showcase my interest in sports analytics. In addition to filling a vacancy for curating and highlighting great work from others, I also had a desire to signal to future employers that I’m serious about sports analytics.

I took my shot, graduated with my Master’s of Applied Data Science from the University of Michigan, and strategically pursued numerous opportunities in the sports betting and sports analytics space.

Was a runner-up a few times, and was flat-out ignored more times than is humanly respectable.

I continued to publish, even after giving up hope and doubting myself.

Then it happened.

Stumbled upon and landed my dream job — a Data Scientist at a golf company.

Now, the drive to continue publishing has stalled, and I’ll be taking an indefinite break from Unexpected Points Added.

I have ideas on how I could add excitement back, but time will tell if it’s meant to be.

Until then, thanks for your time.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

“I go with a smile on my face.”

Tony Gwynn

Self-Promotion

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Welcome

Boise State has been eliminated from the CFP.

Issue Summary

The Green Bay Packers have acquired star edge rusher Micah Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys in a blockbuster trade that makes the Packers a top contender and signals a rebuild for the Cowboys. The Detroit Red Wings are retiring Sergei Fedorov's jersey, celebrating his career which included three Stanley Cups. A report highlights that Stoke City has the longest drought without topping a league table, last doing so in 2008. A new analytic, PLV's Decision Value, is being used to evaluate a top slugger's plate discipline. A former sports bettor explains his successful return to betting, contrasting his $7,800 profit with a public data company's model that failed.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

“Nice pick, sweetheart.”

Lee Corso

This Week's Lineup

How the Micah Parsons Trade Affects the Packers, Cowboys and 2025 NFL Season

The Green Bay Packers have acquired star edge rusher Micah Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for defensive tackle Kenny Clark and two future first-round draft picks.¹ The move, which also included a four-year, $188 million extension for Parsons, makes the Packers a clear contender by significantly boosting their pass rush, while signaling that the Cowboys may be in a period of rebuilding. theanalyst.com

Top 10 Sergei Fedorov moments as a Red Wing

The Detroit Red Wings are set to retire Hockey Hall of Famer Sergei Fedorov's No. 91 jersey in January 2026. The article highlights his storied career with the team, from defecting from the Soviet Union in 1990 to winning three Stanley Cups and numerous individual awards, including the 1994 Hart Trophy. dailyfaceoff.com

Which club has gone the longest without topping the table?

The last time Stoke finished a day at the top of a league was in April 2008, before they were promoted to the Premier League. The article also provides a list of other clubs with long droughts since last topping a league table, and a separate ranking of teams that have gone the longest without being at the bottom of a table, a list led by Chelsea. via at experimental361.com

Using PLV’s Decision Value to Evaluate Hitter Ability: Power Edition

Despite leading the league in home runs, one of MLB's top power hitters has surprisingly poor plate discipline. A new analytical deep-dive uses a cutting-edge metric to explain this paradox and reveal how the game's best sluggers are making their choices at the plate. pitcherlist.com

Learning how to get better at betting on football

A former professional sports bettor and data expert recounts his return to the "hobby," revealing how he profited over $7,800 on a $10,000 bankroll while a prominent data company’s public-facing model lost nearly half of its bankroll. The article also dives into the reasons for his success and others' failures, including an unusual season where home-field advantage was almost non-existent. thetransferflow.com

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NCAA Football and the NFL have just been activated for this season. Go look!

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Welcome

Football is in the air :)

Issue Summary

The stunning collapse of the 2024 Florida State Seminoles highlights a new age of analytics, with an updated Expected Points model and a new Bayesian solution for xG that quantifies player skill. New tools are also at the forefront of projections, from a custom win total tool for top teams to a method for clustering college football's starting quarterbacks by performance.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

“Not so fast, my friend!”

Lee Corso

This Week's Lineup

A New Expected Points Model

Sports Info Solutions updated its Expected Points (EP) model for football, adding new variables—including time remaining in the half/game and the score differential in the fourth quarter—to more accurately account for changes in pace of play. The new model, which applies to both the NFL and college football, is better at predicting scoring outcomes in high-leverage situations, such as when a team is losing at the end of a game, an area where the previous model was notably deficient. sportsinfosolutions.com

A Numbers Nightmare: The Stunning Fall Of The 2024 Florida State Seminoles

The Florida State Seminoles football team, projected to win 9.5 games and ranked as the 13th most talented team in the FBS, had a historically catastrophic 2024 season, finishing with a shocking 2-10 record due to a dramatic drop-off in both their offense and defense. This unprecedented collapse, characterized by a lack of explosive passing plays and a porous offensive line, made FSU the biggest underachiever of the season based on preseason win totals and team talent rankings. via at cfbnumbers.substack.com

Why Your xG Model Might Be Wrong: The Bayesian Solution to Accurate Scoring Predictions

By employing Bayesian hierarchical modeling, a new study demonstrates that while a player's position has minimal impact on their expected goals (xG) when controlling for shot features, individual player skill significantly affects goal-scoring probability. This approach allows analysts to quantify a player's finishing ability, providing a more accurate measure of performance than traditional xG models. via at thexgfootballclub.substack.com

Clustering the Power Four: An analytical look at college football’s 2025 starting quarterbacks

Using a K-Means clustering algorithm, PFF has categorized the projected starting quarterbacks across the Power Four conferences into tiers based on performance metrics such as passing and rushing grades, accurate throw percentage, and Wins Above Average (WAA), with the largest group being unproven players who could be breakout candidates. pff.com

Using Our New Win Total Tool On 8 Projected Top Teams

In a new article, uses a custom "win total tool" to project the 2025 season for eight of college football's top teams. Instead of a binary win/loss prediction, the tool assigns a percentage chance of winning each game to create a more nuanced win total. This method resulted in the author being higher on Clemson and lower on Texas, Georgia, and Penn State compared to current sportsbook odds. https://cfbnumbers.substack.com

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Welcome

Unintentionally skipped last week’s issue, ope!

Issue Summary

In the last issue of the 100s, we look at new analytics metrics for football and baseball, including a breakdown of the soccer metric Goals Added and a new probabilistic approach to evaluating a pitcher's control. We also look at the top wide receivers in the NFL by target depth, a projection for the 2025 SEC football season, and rookie second baseman Luke Keaschall's hot start with the Twins.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

“I’m so mean, I make medicine sick.”

Muhammad Ali

This Week's Lineup

Breaking it Down: G+ Sub-Categories

Goals Added, a metric for quantifying soccer player performance, is being broken down into 37 new subcategories to provide a more detailed understanding of how players contribute value through specific actions, from passing to defensive plays. americansocceranalysis.com

Luke Keaschall Is off to the Twins’ Latest, Hottest Hot Start

Rookie second baseman Luke Keaschall has had a remarkable start to his career with the Minnesota Twins, slashing a scorching .415/.500/.707 with a 234 wRC+ in his first 12 games before his hitting streak was snapped, all while overcoming a significant forearm fracture earlier in the season. fangraphs.com

SEC Predictions: Who Will Win the Toughest Conference in College Football?

According to an analysis using the TRACR supercomputer, the 2025 SEC football season is projected to be led by Texas, followed by Georgia and Alabama, with the conference expected to be highly competitive and volatile due to significant roster turnover and quarterback changes for many top teams. theanalyst.com

Introducing xCTRL: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy

A new baseball metric called xCTRL, or expected Control, measures a pitcher's command by using a probabilistic framework to quantify the distance between a pitch's actual location and their unique, historical target zones, thereby providing a more accurate and individualized evaluation of control than existing statistics. wsb.wharton.upenn.edu

Highest-graded wide receivers by target depth: Standouts at the short, intermediate and deep ranges

A Pro Football Focus analysis of the 2024 NFL season highlighted top-graded wide receivers based on target depth, with Zay Flowers excelling on screens, A.J. Brown dominating in the short passing game, Nico Collins leading the intermediate threats, and Jayden Reed, Deebo Samuel, George Pickens, D.K. Metcalf, and Terry McLaurin all receiving top marks as deep threats. pff.com

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Welcome

Issue Summary

This week's articles tackle a new physics model for predicting perfect football passes, an analytical breakdown of pitcher Tarik Skubal's "aura," and the mixed performance of World Cup hosts on their home turf. We also look at a ranking of the 10 best goalkeepers in history and a study that compares two different soccer betting markets for forecasting match outcomes.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

“You don’t demand respect, you earn it.”

Steve Seidler

This Week's Lineup

The 10 Best Goalkeepers in World Football History

This ranking of the top 10 goalkeepers in football history features some of the game's greatest shot-stoppers, highlighting their iconic saves, career-defining moments, and impressive trophy hauls. themastermindsite.com

Using Physics to Quantify and Predict Pass Success in Professional Football

A new physics-based model calculates the odds of a perfect pass in soccer by crunching player movement and ball trajectory data, all to see if science can predict football success. From at thexgfootballclub.substack.com

An Attempt to Quantify Tarik Skubal’s Aura

An analytical breakdown of Tarik Skubal’s dominance attempts to quantify his "bulldog mentality" by showing how his elite pitch mix and relentless approach to attacking the strike zone make him a nearly unbeatable force on the mound. pitcherlist.com

World Cup Host Nations: How Have They Performed?

While playing at home gives World Cup hosts a significant advantage, with six nations winning the tournament on their own soil, others have struggled, as two of the last four hosts have failed to make it past the group stage. theanalyst.com

Forecasting Soccer Matches with Betting Odds: A tale of two markets

A new study comparing soccer betting markets finds that traditional home/away/draw odds show a consistent "favourite–longshot bias," while a more recent Asian handicap market, which adjusts for a team's strength, provides a more efficient and accurate forecast of match outcomes. sciencedirect.net

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Welcome

Issue Summary

This week, we visualize the seasonality of American sports and dive into PFF's fantasy projections to unearth valuable NFL passing prop bets for the 2025 season, including top quarterbacks. We'll also build the ultimate Team USA roster for the 2026 World Baseball Classic and introduce enhanced Goals Added (g+) soccer analytics for granular player evaluation. Finally, analyze 2024 rookie wide receiver accuracy to gain an edge in your upcoming fantasy drafts.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

“Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard.”

Tim Notke

This Week's Lineup

Sports Seasonality Visualized

Neat little visualization showing the seasonality of American sports. tableau.com

Using PFF fantasy projections to unearth valuable passing props

Uncover the hidden value in NFL passing prop bets for 2025 by leveraging PFF's cutting-edge fantasy projections. This article dives deep into quarterback lines, revealing strategic insights and pinpointing overlooked opportunities—from Joe Burrow's pursuit of the passing yards crown to critical over/under plays that could swing your wagers. pff.com

Building the Perfect Team USA for the 2026 World Baseball Classic

Constructing the ultimate blueprint for Team USA's 2026 World Baseball Classic roster, envisioning a dream lineup stacked with more MLB stars than ever before. From Aaron Judge leading the charge to Paul Skenes on the mound, discover a strategically assembled squad designed to redefine American baseball excellence on the global stage. theanalyst.com

Using Goals Added Subcategories for Player Evaluation

This article unveils enhanced Goals Added (g+) soccer analytics, introducing new subcategories that provide unprecedented insight into how players contribute value through specific on-ball actions, enabling granular comparisons of performance from stars like Lionel Messi and Brian White. americansocceranalysis.com

2024 Rookie WR Accuracy

Evaluates how 2024 fantasy football projections fared against actual rookie wide receiver performance, highlighting the critical role of vacated targets and offering insights for dominating 2025 fantasy drafts by identifying elite talent in opportune situations. fantasyfootballanalytics.net

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Welcome

Took the 4th off, and I might start experimenting with Sunday delivery. Stay tuned :)

Issue Summary

This week, we remember the versatile brilliance of Diogo Jota and explore the algorithm behind a billion-dollar horse betting fortune. Plus, uncover the rare MLB catchers who've hit 40+ homers in a season, learn about a new "NOLA" metric for starting pitcher consistency, and delve into how basketball analytics is revolutionizing player and team performance.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

“There may be people who have more talent than you, but there’s no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.”

Derek Jeter

This Week's Lineup

A tribute to Diogo Jota

This tribute remembers Diogo Jota, the Liverpool forward who defied expectations with his versatile brilliance and prolific goal-scoring, a talent gone far too soon. themastermindsite.com

Revisiting the Algorithm that Changed Horse Race Betting

Discover the algorithm behind Bill Benter's reported $1 billion horse betting fortune, revealing how his system combined fundamental analysis with public odds, now revisited with three decades of new data. actamachina.com

The Most Home Runs by a Catcher in a Season

Defying the brutal demands of baseball's toughest position, only seven catchers have ever blasted 40+ home runs in a single season – uncover their legendary feats and the surprising name currently poised to join this elite club. theanalyst.com

Introducing NOLA: A Metric for Starting Pitcher Consistency

Introducing NOLA (Normalized Outlier Likelihood Above average), a new Statcast-driven metric designed to quantify a starting pitcher's consistency by analyzing the standard deviation of their Game Scores, weighted by their ERA-. Inspired by Aaron Nola's infamously volatile starts, NOLA aims to empirically measure the "frustration factor" of pitchers who deliver both gems and blowups, despite their overall quality, distinguishing them from consistently bad pitchers. fangraphs.com

Modeling Player and Team Performance in Basketball

Discover how basketball analytics is transforming the sport, as this paper reviews modern methods for quantifying team strategy and player evaluation, ultimately advocating for the crucial need for causal inference in sports analysis. Research Paper

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Welcome

Heavy on baseball this week, enjoy!

Issue Summary

It seems MLB's baseballs are acting strangely again, with unexplained drag shortening fly balls, but the Detroit Tigers are finding success through aggressive baserunning and elite outfield positioning. Meanwhile, we'll check in on Bobby Witt Jr.'s offensive adjustments and delve into a new PitchingBot model offering a stable evaluation of pitch quality, independent of game outcomes

Unexpected Quote of the Week

"You’ve got to be very careful if you don’t know where you are going, because you might not get there."

Yogi Berra

This Week's Lineup

MLB’s baseball is behaving differently again, but no one seems to know why ($)

MLB's 2025 baseballs are exhibiting increased, unexplained drag, causing hard-hit fly balls to travel four feet shorter. The league acknowledges the change but has no explanation, impacting player performance despite claims of consistent gameplay. Use https://12ft.io/ to sidestep access. nytimes.com

The team with MLB's best record has a secret weapon

The 2025 Detroit Tigers are exceptionally aggressive on the bases, leading MLB with their highest "extra bases taken" rate in decades. This deliberate strategy, pushed by their third-base coach, prioritizes putting pressure on opponents and defining their team identity, rather than relying on elite speed or stolen bases. mlb.com

Which Team Positions Its Outfielders Best?

The Detroit Tigers lead MLB in Outfield Positioning Runs Saved this season, demonstrating how strategic pre-pitch placement significantly increases their outfielders' chances of making outs. This success, calculated by improved out probability based on fielder positioning, isn't due to high volume but rather a deliberate team strategy that has notably bolstered their overall defense. sportsinfosolutions.com

Checking In on Bobby Witt Jr.

While still an elite defensive and baserunning talent, Bobby Witt Jr.'s offensive production has regressed in 2025 compared to his stellar 2024 MVP-caliber season. This decline is largely attributed to a drop in his contact ability, particularly against four-seam fastballs located high in the strike zone, which pitchers are utilizing more frequently. Despite his consistent hard-hit metrics, Witt is whiffing more on these pitches, potentially due to a slight steepening in his swing. However, projections remain optimistic, suggesting he's likely to adjust and return closer to his previous offensive levels. pitcherlist.com

PitchingBot Pitch Modeling Primer

This article introduces a new public PitchingBot model that assesses pitch quality using Statcast data, independent of game outcomes. This XGBoost-powered model provides stable evaluations by predicting event likelihoods and converting them into an Expected Run Value (xRV) on a 20-80 scouting scale, offering a more consistent measure of pitcher ability. fangraphs.com

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Welcome

Bucket list item tonight seeing the band shared below in concert!

Issue Summary

This week, we're diving into the fundamental math of Elo rating systems and an in-depth analysis of sportsbook accuracy for NFL player props. Plus, explore a new GPU-accelerated pipeline for hockey Expected Goals, dissect the surprising Rafael Devers trade, and revisit the evolving history of 3-point shooting in the NBA Finals.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

"The Finals aren’t about who’s the best player. It’s about who plays best."

Tim Duncan

Unexpected Song of the Week

This Week's Lineup

Convergence and stationary distribution of Elo rating systems [research paper]

Research paper that explores the Elo rating system, a popular method for ranking players and teams, proving that its dynamic rating process eventually reaches a unique, stable equilibrium. It also details key properties of this stable state, including how ratings accurately reflect players' true skills as the system's update parameter is adjusted. arxiv.org

Measuring Sportsbook Accuracy: Analysis of NFL Player Props Using Line Deviations

An analysis of over 12,000 NFL player prop bets across four major sportsbooks found that Pinnacle consistently offers the sharpest odds. The study also revealed that sportsbooks incorporate a "favorite-longshot bias" into their odds, and that the power method for removing vigorish (vig) from odds provides more accurate probability estimates than the commonly used multiplicative method, indicating its potential to improve betting strategies. shaanchanchani.github.io

Hockey Expected Goals (xG) Pipeline

Introducing a GPU-accelerated Python pipeline via for estimating hockey expected goals (xG), offering a complete, reproducible workflow from data to a high-performing model that leverages key shot and game context features. https://github.com/tannermanett

Giants Acquire Rafael Devers in Unexpected Blockbuster

In a surprising mid-season blockbuster, the San Francisco Giants acquired star hitter Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox, sending a package of prospects and salary relief in return. While analytical models might suggest a win for Boston due to Devers' long, expensive contract, the article argues that the Red Sox, currently in a playoff race, bafflingly sacrificed immediate competitiveness by trading their best hitter for future assets, a move that heavily favors the Giants' present ambitions. fangraphs.com

NBA Finals 3-Point Shooting, A History

Though initially predicted for an easy win, the NBA Finals between OKC and the Pacers have become a tight battle, prompting a historical look at three-point shooting in the Finals. This review reveals the shot's drastic increase in prominence since the 1980s, yet highlights that some champions still succeed without high three-point volume. hoopsanalyst.com

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Yeah yeah, it looks more like a tennis ball than golf ball :)

Welcome

Jobe. Noooooo.

Issue Summary

From an unprecedented US Open prediction model making Scottie Scheffler an overwhelming favorite to a surprising analysis revealing how soccer players prioritize behavioral optics in penalty kicks, this week's data dive spans the tactical and psychological. We'll also explore how analytics has "solved" modern basketball, uncover the perplexing struggle of right-handed batters against lefties in MLB, and dissect every team's financial strategy with a look at 2025 MLB payrolls and beyond.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

"You do not play hockey for good seasons. You play to win the Stanley Cup."

Guy Lafleur

This Week's Lineup

US Open Predictions

With the notoriously challenging Oakmont Country Club set to host the U.S. Open, a cutting-edge prediction model reveals why Scottie Scheffler is an unprecedented favorite, while also pinpointing the few genuine contenders and highlighting surprising slumps among golf's biggest names. theanalyst.com

Are Players Chasing the Best Outcome or Just Playing It Safe?

Contrary to game-theory predictions, an in-depth analysis of professional soccer penalty kicks by reveals players prioritize avoiding embarrassing misses alongside maximizing scoring chances, demonstrating that behavioral optics significantly influence shot placement even at the cost of optimal conversion rates. thexgfootballclub.substack.com

Basketball is a solved sport

In modern basketball, data and analytics have transformed the sport from unpredictable artistry into a game of calculated efficiency, favoring three-pointers and specialized player roles while leveraging advanced technology to optimize every possession. nabraj.com

What’s Happening To The Advantage For Right-Handed Batters vs Left-Handed Pitchers?

An unexplained shift is perplexing MLB analysts: right-handed batters are struggling significantly against left-handed pitchers in 2025, showing a stark drop in key hitting metrics, particularly slugging percentage. sportsinfosolutions.com

The 2025 Payrolls… And Beyond!

As MLB's 2025 season unfolds, an in-depth financial breakdown details every team's current and future payroll, distinguishing between real-dollar and luxury tax calculations, analyzing player contract allocations, and revealing future commitments to shed light on each franchise's unique spending strategy and upcoming financial flexibility. fangraphs.com

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Welcome

Loving the presence of other Substack newsletters this week. Have other recs? Send em my way, por favor!

Issue Summary

As the NBA Finals tip off with a unique, data-driven preview, a new method for measuring NFL mock draft quality is unveiled, and baseball analytics gets a crucial update with a reloaded run expectancy matrix. Meanwhile, a fresh analysis explores whether superstar power or team depth truly wins in hockey, and each Premier League club's 2024-25 season is summed up with one defining statistic.

Unexpected Quote of the Week

"If at first you don’t succeed, keep on sucking till you do succeed."

Curly Howard, Three Stooges

Unexpected Song of the Week

This Week's Lineup

The CHRIS Finals Preview

With the NBA Finals set to tip off, this unique preview from dives into the two contending teams through a collection of intriguing season-long observations, from roster construction and international player presence to historical trades, player development, and even their social media habits. chartinghoops.substack.com

How Do We Measure Mock Draft Quality?

Explore a new, statistically robust method for evaluating NFL mock draft accuracy from , revealing why traditional scoring systems fall short and how an advanced correlation metric identifies truly superior predictions. grindingthemocks.substack.com

The Run Expectancy Matrix, Reloaded for the 2020s

In a public service to baseball analytics, a new, updated run expectancy matrix for 2025 is unveiled, providing crucial data for understanding how scoring probabilities have shifted across different eras and why modern baseball's reliance on strikeouts and home runs impacts game strategy. fangraphs.com

Is It Better for a Hockey Team to Have a Superstar or Depth?

In the age-old debate of superstar power vs. team depth in hockey, a new analysis by using Shannon entropy reveals how shot distribution impacts goal-scoring, offering insights into whether relying on a few top players or spreading the offensive wealth leads to more on-ice success. edwithsports.substack.com

One Stat to Sum Up Each Premier League Club’s 2024-25 Season

Step onto the pitch as we dissect each Premier League club's 2024-25 season through a single, defining statistic, revealing the surprising stories, key successes, and unexpected struggles that shaped their campaigns. theanalyst.com

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Welcome

Issue Summary

Think NFL records are unbreakable? PFF explores five impossible modern feats, while a deep dive into "trench chess" reveals how defensive lines manipulate offenses for pressure. Meanwhile, the art of "slam dunk" framing by MLB catchers is dissected, the greatest strikeout pitchers in baseball history are unveiled, and the Detroit Tigers' remarkable 100-game turnaround is analyzed.

Weekly Unexpected Quote

"It’s hard to beat a person who never gives up."

Babe Ruth

This Week's Lineup

5 most unbreakable PFF NFL records

Think NFL records are meant to be broken? PFF dropped a list of five astonishing feats from the modern era by players like Aaron Donald and Derrick Henry that might just be impossible to top. pff.com

Trench Chess: How Defensive Lines Create Opportunities by Changing The Picture

Unlocking the secrets of the NFL trenches, this analysis dives into how defenses use "disguised pressures" and "stunts" to confuse offensive lines, revealing which schemes generate the most pressure and identifying the elite pass rushers who consistently win their one-on-one battles. kaggle.com

Let’s Talk About Slam Dunk Framing

Ever notice how elite catchers seem to "steal" strikes at the top of the zone? Dive into the art of "slam dunk" framing, where defensive wizards like Cal Raleigh and Patrick Bailey use subtle, deceptive movements to trick umpires into calling pitches strikes, even when they're not. fangraphs.com

Which Pitchers Have the Most Strikeouts in MLB History?

Discover the legends of the mound as this article unveils the most dominant strikeout pitchers in MLB history, showcasing how titans from Nolan Ryan to Max Scherzer punched their way into the record books. theanalyst.com

Numbers behind 100-game stretch when Tigers have ruled MLB

How did the Detroit Tigers go from struggling to leading all of MLB in just 100 games? The formidable pitching, surging bats, and unexpected individual performances hold the secrets behind their remarkable turnaround. espn.com

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Welcome

America loves a comeback story, right? Javy. Baez. Let’s go! Although his underlying batting stats suggest regression to his mean, all Tigers fans are enjoying his play of late.

Issue Summary

From uncovering surprising NFL schedule trends and dissecting how NBA stars master the art of drawing fouls, to witnessing Javier Báez's incredible comeback for the Tigers, and a new platform identifying the next generation of press-resistant midfielders. Plus, dive deep into what truly separates elite ball carriers using advanced data – this week's issue is packed with insights from across the sports world.

Weekly Unexpected Quote

"A champion is defined not by their wins but by how they can recover when they fall."

Serena Williams

This Week's Lineup

10 Facts About NFL Schedule Trends

Explore intriguing NFL schedule trends you probably never knew about. This article digs into ten data-backed observations, from how first-year coaches fare on short rest to surprising team performance in specific climates and after international travel. sportsinfosolutions.com

A New Look at Fouls

Are certain NBA stars "foul merchants"? This article by dissects how players like Giannis, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jalen Brunson master the art of drawing fouls (and avoiding committing them), revealing surprising insights into who truly benefits from the officiating in today's NBA. chartinghoops.substack.com

The New-Look Javier Báez Is Fun Again

From injury struggles to an uncertain roster spot, Javier Báez has staged an incredible comeback for the Detroit Tigers, thrilling fans with dazzling defense in new positions and a revitalized swing that's fueling their division lead! fangraphs.com

Finding the Next Generation of Press-Resistant Midfielders

Curious how top clubs find those elusive "press-resistant" midfielders? This article spills the beans on a new analytics platform that's identifying top U21 talents from youth and senior leagues globally, revealing a few names you might want to remember. analyticsfc.co.uk

Digging Deeper Into Ball Carrying

Ever wonder what truly separates elite ball carriers from the rest? Dive into how Hudl Statsbomb data uncovers their hidden strengths, from optimizing post-carry actions to masterfully creating space under pressure. theanalyst.com

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Welcome

Issue Summary

Premier League clubs are now leveraging AI to decode player psychology through body language, while groundbreaking research introduces a hybrid time series model for superior sports predictions. Transformer models are unlocking new strategic insights from NFL player tracking data, and an analysis of the 2024 SEC football season using Adjusted Pythagorean Record highlights over and underachievers. Finally, the stats behind the Premier League Player of the Season nominees are dissected to crown the most impactful individual..

Weekly Unexpected Quote

"The only way to prove you’re a good loser is to lose."

Ernie Banks

This Week's Lineup

Analysts using AI to psychologically profile elite players

Forget purely physical stats – this article reveals how Premier League clubs are using AI to analyze players' on-pitch body language, uncovering psychological insights into emotional control and leadership that could revolutionize recruitment and team selection. theguardian.com

Exploring Patterns Behind Sports [PDF]

This research introduces a powerful hybrid time series prediction model, blending ARIMA and LSTM with innovative feature engineering via embeddings and PCA, and uses SHAP and KNN to provide interpretable and accurate forecasts, outperforming traditional methods by capturing both linear and complex nonlinear patterns. Research Paper

Modeling with Transformers (SumerSports)

This notebook demonstrates a cutting-edge approach using transformer models and deep learning to analyze complex NFL player tracking data, going beyond traditional stats to predict play formations with impressive accuracy and opening doors for deeper strategic insights across various sports. kaggle.com

2024 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: SEC

Analyzes the 2024 SEC football season using Adjusted Pythagorean Record (APR), revealing which teams overachieved (Missouri) and underachieved (Mississippi State) based on their scoring and touchdown prevention, and it delves into the concerning historical trend for teams like Mississippi State who went winless in conference play with a first-year coach.. leftyloon.blogspot.com

Premier League Player of the Season Nominees

The 2024-25 Premier League Player of the Season nominees are in, and this article breaks down the stats behind each of the eight contenders, including Salah, Van Dijk, and surprise names from clubs like Nottingham Forest and Brentford, to determine who had the most outstanding individual campaign. theanalyst.com

Self-Promotion

I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value (+EV) in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds. MLB is active, along with my own starting pitcher strikeout props.

New to +EV betting? This explainer is for you.

Let me know what you think.

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Welcome

Issue Summary

Base stealing in MLB is exploding thanks to rule changes, with runners pushing the limits as defenses adapt, while a deep dive into NFL snap timing variability reveals quarterbacks like Mahomes weaponize unpredictability. Data-driven skill definitions are revolutionizing EuroLeague roster construction, and a statistical comparison is boldly asking if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's stellar season puts him in the realm of Michael Jordan, while Cardinals pitcher Matthew Liberatore is hinting at a breakout fueled by a Kershaw-esque slider.

Weekly Unexpected Quote

"Things turn out best for the people who make the best of the way things turn out."

John Wooden

This Week's Lineup

The Steals Will Continue Until Success Rates Decline

Stealing bases in MLB is easier than ever due to recent rule changes, leading to a surge in attempts, and while defenses are adjusting, baserunners are still pushing the limits, making for a dynamic and evolving aspect of the game. fangraphs.com

Explaining variability in snap timing on plays with motion

Ever wondered if a quarterback's snap timing with receivers in motion gives their offense an edge? ’s article dives into a fascinating Big Data Bowl project that models snap timing variability, revealing which QBs like Patrick Mahomes have the most unpredictable timing and how this might surprisingly relate to overall passing play success. statthinksportsanalytics.substack.com

Decoding EuroLeague Positions - A Data-Driven Approach to Winning Rosters

Forget traditional positions! This data-driven analysis from of 10 EuroLeague seasons redefines player roles based on actual skills, revealing surprising insights into which new roster structures—emphasizing perimeter threats and three-point shooting—consistently lead to higher winning percentages. sltsportsanalytics.substack.com

Have we found the new Michael Jordan?

Is Oklahoma City Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the next Michael Jordan? This in-depth statistical comparison from stacks SGA's impressive 2024-25 season against Jordan's peak, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, James Harden, and even Anthony Edwards, revealing surprising similarities in impact and efficiency that might just warrant the bold comparison. natesilver.net

Is Matthew Liberatore on the Verge of a Breakout?

After a winding journey, Cardinals pitcher Matthew Liberatore is showing signs of a potential breakout in 2025, fueled by a revamped slider reminiscent of Clayton Kershaw and an evolving arsenal like Max Meyer, suggesting he could finally become the consistent starter St. Louis needs. pitcherlist.com

Self-Promotion

I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value (+EV) in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds. MLB is active, along with my own starting pitcher strikeout props. Check it out, let me know what you think. New to +EV betting? This explainer is for you.

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Welcome

As it was almost immediately pointed out after Tampa Bay was eliminated, they were indeed the Stanley Cup favorite from The Analyst. Whoops! The Red Wings fan in me just hates to see it :)

Issue Summary

AI is diving into the 2025 NFL QB class with clustering, while historical data and modeling are projecting sleepers and busts across multiple positions. Draft value steals and reaches are being identified team by team, and the draft classes themselves are being graded. Plus, a look back at Day 2 history reveals the impact of "Best Available" talent.

Weekly Unexpected Quote

"Championships aren’t won in the first round. They’re won in the fifth."

Bill Polian

This Week's Lineup

K-Means Clustered NFL Draft Prospects

Analyzing the 2025 NFL Draft quarterback class, employs K-Means clustering to compare prospects to historical players based on college statistics, offering insights into potential NFL trajectories. cfbnumbers.substack.com

NFL Draft Projections Using Historical Data And Contextualized AI Modeling With Player Profiling

Leveraging AI and historical data, Kitman Labs offers NFL Draft projections for quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, identifying potential sleepers and highlighting discrepancies between draft hype and metrics predictive of long-term NFL success. sportstechie.net

NFL Team Draft Value Measurement

Reviewing the 2025 NFL Draft, this article identifies potential value steals (players picked later than their PFF ranking) and reaches (players picked earlier), offering a team-by-team analysis of draft board alignment and notable selections. pff.com

2025 SIS NFL Draft Grades

Grades the 2025 NFL Draft classes of all 32 teams based on the scouting evaluations from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), highlighting the Cleveland Browns as having the best draft and the San Francisco 49ers the worst, while also assessing the accuracy of SIS's pre-draft player rankings. sportsinfosolutions.com

The History of “Best Available” on Day 2

explores the value of "Best Available" lists on Day 2 of the NFL Draft by analyzing historical data to see how often these highly-ranked players who slip out of the first round become impactful NFL players, and identifies the top "first-round talent" still available heading into Day 2 of the 2025 draft. wideleft.football

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I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value (+EV) in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds. MLB is active, along with my own starting pitcher strikeout props. Check it out, let me know what you think.

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Welcome

Stayed up too late watching the draft, thus the delay!

Issue Summary

The ice is set for Stanley Cup dreams as predictive models unveil the playoff contenders, while on the diamond, Detroit's Torkelson is showing newfound power, and Yankee rookie Rice is mashing early. Across the pond, Premier League tactics are dissected through data-driven playing styles, and a unique "All-Scrapes Team" celebrates MLB's most daring defensive dives.

Weekly Unexpected Quote

"I became a good pitcher when I stopped trying to make them miss the ball and started trying to make them hit it."

Sandy Koufax

This Week's Lineup

NHL Playoff Predictions

Using their TRACR model, this article provides NHL playoff predictions, ranking the 16 teams' chances of winning the Stanley Cup, with Tampa Bay as the favorite. theanalyst.com

Spencer Torkelson's Adjustments

After a rocky start to his MLB career, Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson is showing significant improvement in 2025, marked by a hot streak and notable adjustments to his batting stance and approach that are translating to increased power and efficiency, suggesting this might be more than just a temporary surge. fangraphs.com

EPL 2024-25 Playing Styles

This article uses Opta data to analyze Premier League teams' playing styles in 2024-25, focusing on metrics like speed of attack, ball progression effectiveness, and high turnovers to reveal tactical trends and team-specific approaches. theanalyst.com

Ben Rice is Mashing

Yankees rookie Ben Rice, after a challenging 2024, has started the 2025 season impressively, showcasing improved power and plate discipline, though his long-term consistency and ability to adjust to pitching adjustments remain to be seen. pitcherlist.com

The All-Scrapes Team

Identifies the MLB players who dove for batted balls most frequently at each position between 2022 and 2024, highlighting leaders like Pete Alonso (first base), Andrés Giménez (second base), Geraldo Perdomo and C.J. Abrams (shortstop), Alec Bohm (third base), Jurickson Profar (left field), Brenton Doyle (center field), and George Springer (right field), with Nico Hoerner leading overall. sportsinfosolutions.com

Self-Promotion

I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value (+EV) in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds. MLB is active, along with my own starting pitcher strikeout props. Check it out, let me know what you think.

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Welcome

It’s not every day that your favorite baseball player of all time snaps an all-time photo from an all-time edition of The Masters. The Kid does it again. Way to survive, Rory.

Issue Summary

This week's deep dive into the NFL Draft unveils a new "burn rate" for receivers, statistical QB comparisons, and advanced analytics on edge rushers, alongside a look back at the best first-round picks of the last decade. Plus, discover which colleges are currently the top producers of impactful NFL talent.

Weekly Unexpected Quote

"Potential means you haven’t done anything yet."

Bill Parcells

This Week's Lineup

NFL Draft Wide Receiver Rankings

Introduces a ranking of the top seven 2025 NFL Draft wide receiver prospects based on their 2024 "burn rate," a metric measuring how often they get open. While noting this draft class isn't as deep as the last, the author highlights burn rate as a key quarterback-independent skill and provides deeper insights into each receiver's college performance beyond just this metric. theanalyst.com

NFL Draft QB Prospect Comparisons

Using statistical models, this article compares 2025 NFL Draft quarterbacks to past college-to-NFL players, analyzing key metrics to project potential NFL outcomes while acknowledging the impact of team situation and coaching. theanalyst.com

What Do Analytics Show For Edge Rushers In NFL Draft?

Using advanced analytics like Expected Pressure Rate +/- and Snap to Pressure Time to evaluate the 2025 NFL Draft's edge rusher class, noting its depth despite a lack of consensus top-tier talent. It highlights James Pearce Jr. in pressure metrics and Abdul Carter's quick time to pressure, while also examining Total Points per snap to provide a deeper statistical comparison of the top prospects. sportsinfosolutions.com

NFL Draft: Highest-graded first-round picks at every pick slot across the last decade

Identifies the highest-graded NFL first-round draft picks at each selection slot over the last decade (2016-2024) according to PFF grades. Highlighting players like Joe Burrow, Nick and Joey Bosa, Sauce Gardner, and Patrick Mahomes, it showcases top talent and performance relative to their draft position. pff.com

Which colleges have produced the best NFL draftees since 2022

Analyzes which college football programs have produced the most impactful NFL players over the past three seasons (2022-2024) using PFF snap counts and Wins Above Replacement (WAR). It highlights programs like Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama for consistent high production, notes Cincinnati's surprising success, and points out underperforming SEC schools relative to the number of their alumni in the NFL. The article also touches on the significant impact of quarterback development on a program's NFL player value. pff.com

Self-Promotion

I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value (+EV) in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds. MLB is active, along with my own starting pitcher strikeout props. Check it out, let me know what you think.

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Welcome

Second issue with Substack. Was very pleased with how the first one went, and the overall post creation process. Has definitely restored an energy I was depleted of in creating issues each week.

This is a great week for sports! Three great Final Four games, and now we’re primed for The Masters (no teaser articles for it, I’ll correct this going forward). Now only if Mother Nature would get the hint and have winter see its way out for good for those in the north.

Keep the resource recommendations coming, thanks!

Issue Summary

From baseball's bizarre new bat tech and the physics behind its potential, to an AI model that achieved a solid 64% accuracy predicting March Madness outcomes, and a revealing look at which college hoops programs have truly dominated the tournament landscape. Plus, peer a decade into the NBA's future to see which franchises are primed for a dynasty run.

Weekly Unexpected Quote

"The pitcher has got only a ball. I've got a bat. So the percentage in weapons is in my favor and I let the fellow with the ball do the fretting."

Hank Aaron

This Week's Lineup

Torpedo Bats in Acquisition

Torpedo bats, with their redistributed mass, represent a simple yet potentially impactful baseball innovation, leveraging permissive rules to optimize bat performance based on individual swing mechanics and situational hitting, though adoption hinges on player acceptance and potential rule adjustments. fangraphs.com

The Physics of the Torpedo Bat

A physics-based analysis of "torpedo bats"—designed with reduced mass at the tip and increased mass at the sweet spot—suggests that while the peak exit velocity remains similar to traditional bats, the torpedo bat offers a wider sweet spot and better performance on inside pitches, likely due to altered vibrational properties resulting from the unique mass distribution, though experimental validation is still underway. fangraphs.org

Building a March Madness Model using XGBoost

Outlines how to build an XGBoost model in Python, leveraging the CBBD API for NCAA basketball data, to predict March Madness game outcomes with approximately 64% accuracy in the 2024 tournament, also illustrating its use for forecasting hypothetical future games. collegefootballdata.com

Men's Tournament Wins Leaderboard and PASE

Florida's recent title shakes up the post-1985 NCAA men's tournament wins leaderboard, with Duke, UNC, and Kansas leading. The article also dives into updated "Performance Against Seed Expectation" (PASE) stats, revealing surprising insights about top programs. johngasaway.com

NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings

After a chaotic NBA trade deadline, ranks all 30 teams by their projected likelihood of winning championships over the next decade (2025-2034). The analysis prioritizes title contention, evaluating current rosters and future prospects based on factors like star players, draft picks, and organizational strength. natesilver.net

Self-Promotion

I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value (+EV) in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds. MLB is active, along with my own starting pitcher strikeout props. Check it out, let me know what you think.

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Welcome

The first issue on Substack! Might be some bumps as I figure things out over the next few weeks. Please comment/reply if you notice any oddities.

Why the change? Simple. The incentive to reach additional eyeballs on a platform that’s designed to do so. Curated.co was great for the initial proof of concept due to their great UI for newsletter curation. However, it was becoming stale, and the platform had no experienced or planned improvements. I even reached out to support. It went unanswered.

For those just discovering the newsletter for the first time, here’s an overview of what to expect each week:

• Welcome quip followed by a brief Summary of what’s in the week’s issue

• A Weekly Unexpected Quote (I love quotes)

• This Week’s Lineup, which will consist of 5 articles (I’m always seeking new sources)

• Maybe a little Self-Promotion

• Encouragement to share/comment/subscribe/fax/etc.

That’s it! Short, sweet, and consumable during your Friday morning coffee.

Issue Summary

With March Madness still buzzing, and the MLB season torpedoing away, this week we're diving into the data that defined those thrilling NCAA runs and the metrics shaping college hoops futures. Plus, we'll explore the surprising paths of future MLB stars, the ballpark buzz for 2025, and the diverse strategies behind how 2025 Opening Day rosters were built.

Weekly Unexpected Quote

"Success comes not to him who has suffered the least but to him whose will is firmest and morale strongest."

1913 Field Regulations of the French Army, appearing in The Guns of August

This Week's Lineup

Players With the Best NCAA Tournament Runs in Recent History

Intriguing individual performances and dominant tournament runs in March Madness since 2012 have been quantified using a new metric, revealing a surprising leader for a single game and a familiar name atop the best overall tournament performances. theanalyst.com

College Basketball DRIP is Here: Our Daily-Updated Rating of Individual Performance

Introduces DRIP (Daily-Updated Rating of Individual Performance) for college basketball, a metric similar to its NBA counterpart, which projects a player's future contribution to their team's offensive and defensive ratings, offering a forward-looking perspective compared to the backward-looking WAR (Wins Above Replacement). theanalyst.com

Pathways to Success: The Role of Transfers in Shaping Elite MLB Careers

Strategic transfers through the NCAA portal and JUCO system can be pivotal in shaping elite MLB careers, as demonstrated by the distinct journeys of Tylor Megill, Bryce Harper, and Paul Skenes, who leveraged these pathways to refine their skills, gain crucial exposure, and ultimately achieve major league success, though such meteoric outcomes remain rare. harvardsportsanalysis.org

Two New Ballparks Enter the Villa

Due to ballpark issues, the Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays will play their 2025 home games in minor league stadiums, Sutter Health Park and George M. Steinbrenner Field respectively, with projections suggesting Sutter Health will play neutrally while GMS Field is likely to be hitter-friendly, a shift from both teams' previous pitcher-friendly major league home parks. fangraphs.com

How the 2025 Opening Day Rosters Were Built

Opening Day MLB rosters in 2025 showcased diverse team-building strategies, with some relying heavily on homegrown talent (Guardians, Cardinals), others on free agency (teams lacking internal options), and a few aggressively utilizing trades (Rays) or waivers (Marlins), while also reflecting a wide range of team ages and international representation, notably featuring players from less common baseball nations. fangraphs.com

Self-Promotion

I am building +EV Bets, which identifies positive expected value (+EV) in the major sports betting markets based on popular prediction models and live betting odds. MLB is active, along with my own starting pitcher strikeout props. Check it out, let me know what you think.

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