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Issue One Hundred And Eighty One.
Might move to Substack soon. If there's a breakage, that'll be why.
A TRACR-powered simulation breaks down March Madness contenders, while historical trends suggest Gonzaga is primed for another deep run. Meanwhile, Duke dominates in shot volume, the Cardinals' aging roster hampers their success, and a study explores machine learning for soccer match forecasting. Skipped last week on accident, so an early issue to get March Madness started!
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This Week's Lineup
NCAA Tournament Predictions: Who Will Win March Madness?
A TRACR-powered simulation of the 2025 NCAA Tournament predicts the top contenders, upset probabilities, and toughest paths to the Final Four, offering insights to help fans fill out their March Madness brackets.
Statistically Speaking: March Madness Intermission: The Few, The Proud, The Machine
Gonzaga enters the NCAA Tournament as an 8 seed—its lowest since 2016—but history suggests the Bulldogs are a safe bet to advance past the first round under Mark Few. But the Sweet 16?
Duke’s No. 1 for shot volume too
Duke leads major-conference teams in shot volume, showcasing its dominance in offensive efficiency and scoring opportunities.
The Last 10 Years of the Cardinals in Three Graphs
The Cardinals have long been known for balancing veteran leadership with a steady pipeline of young talent, but a shift toward an aging roster—especially on the pitching side—has left them struggling to maintain their once-consistent competitiveness.
[Research Paper] Forecasting Soccer Matches through Distributions
Forecasting soccer outcomes through shot-based modeling and machine learning offers both an intellectual challenge and financial opportunity, as demonstrated in this study inspired by the Springer Soccer Prediction Challenge.
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes.
I completed a Master of Applied Data Science from the University of Michigan; let's connect.
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